Central Government Employees DA from July 2015 will be based on our calculations given below – All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for May 2015 released by Labour Bureau – Two Point increase in AIPCI(IW)

DA from July 2015 – As estimated and posted through our earlier posts, Dearness Allowance for Cental Government Employees with effect from July 2015 will be increased by 6% thanks to two point increase in All India CPI (IW) for May 2015.

Except CPI for June-2015, all data for calculation of Dearness Allowance from July 2015 are available now.

 Month Actual AICPI-IW Jul-2014 252 Aug-2014 253 Sep-2014 253 Oct-2014 253 Nov-2014 253 Dec- 2014 253 Jan-2015 254 Feb-2015 253 Mar-2015 254 Apr-2015 256 May-2015 258 Jun-2015 To be released

Now AICPIN for the month of June remains for the DA of JULY-2015, We have to take the assumed value for CPI-IW only for June 2015. It is found that even for increase of 6 points in June 2015 from the existing CPI of 258, DA from July 2015 will be 119%. Only when CPI is increased to 265 from the existing level of 258, DA from July 2015 will be increased to 120%.

 DA from Jul 2015= [(252+253+253+253+253+253+254+253+254+256+258+265)-115.76]*100/115.76 = 120% (7% increase in DA from July 2015)

On the lower side, we found that only when Consumer Price Index fell down to 250 i.e when CPI (IW) is getting decreased by 8 Points, Central Government Employees DA from July 2015 will be fixed at 118%.

 DA from Jul 2015= [(252+253+253+253+253+253+254+253+254+256+258+250)-115.76]*100/115.76 = 118 % (5% increase in DA from July 2015)

From the above, it is clear that chances for decrease of 8 Points in CPI in a single month or increase of 7 points in same period are very remote. So, we can very well conclude that DA from July 2015 will be 119%.

Also check the following articles on estimation of DA from July 2015 for Central Government Employees and Pensioners

Full text of Press Release issued Labour Bureau on release of All India Consumer Price Index for the month of May 2015

No. 5/1/2015- CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-l71004

DATED : 30th June, 2015

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – May, 2015

The All-India CPI-1W for May, 2015 increased by 2 points and pegged at 258 (two hundred and fifty eight). On l-month percentage change, it increased by 0.78 per cent between April, 2015 and May, 2015 when compared with the increase of (+) 0.83 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 1.96 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Arhar Dal, Gram Dal, Masur Dal, Moong Dal, Urd Dal, Groundnut Oil, Mustard Oil, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Poultry (Chicken), Onion, Vegetable items, Electricity Charges, Petrol, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted by Wheat, Wheat Atta,Gourd, Torai, Lady’s Finger, Mango, Sugar, Bus Fare, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 5.74 per cent for May, 2015 as compared to 5.79 per cent for the previous month and 7.02 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 5.99 per cent against 5.68 per cent of the previous month and 7.66 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Mercara, Bokaro, Coonoor, Belgaum and Madurai reported the highest increase of 8 points each followed by Tiruchirapally (7 points). Among others, 6 points increase was observed in 4 centres, 5 points in 5 centres, 4 points in 12 centres, 3 points in 9 centres, 2 points in 10 centres and 1 point in 15 centres. On the contrary, Srinagar and Rangapara Tezpur centres recorded a maximum decrease of 3 points each followed by Darjeeling (2 points). Among others, 1 point decrease was observed in 4 centres. Rest of the 10 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above All India Index and other 40 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Tiruchirapally is at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-1W for the month of June, 2015 will be released on Friday, 3 lst July, 2015. The same will also be available on the office website www.1obourbureau. gov. in.

(S. . NEGI)

DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL

Source: Labour Bureau